What would our average expected life span be if we didn't die of sickness or old age? - old plane wreck for sale
Strange question, I know, but here the ground is. A friend and I discussed how long it if he did not live to age or illness, is a factor. For example, the only way that I would die of a species or an accident or human intervention. Assuming that you have lived a normal life (planes, trains, cars, city life), my friend thinks that the average life expectancy would be about 250, and one would have died in a car accident during the period are. I think it would be much longer.
When actuaries and good people with the calculation of life expectancy, you may be interested to hear what they thought.
Thanks in advance
Monday, January 25, 2010
Old Plane Wreck For Sale What Would Our Average Expected Life Span Be If We Didn't Die Of Sickness Or Old Age?
9 comments:
Life expectancy of a person under 28 would be less ... more immortal, because they think today .... it would do "extreme" sport of the most dangerous things ...
or .. hmmm ... What about the elderly ... What are the effects of aging ... Paralyzed by arthritis or memory loss, vision, things like that? If the poor quality of life .. could be more work for people like Kevorkian ... (Assisted suicide)
It depends on the accidents.
If people do not die of old age or sickness, is the sole cause of death by accident or murder, we should approximate mortality, which in his model, his constant force. Let us assume that the force of mortality is empirically established that a number μ. If X is the random variable indicating the age of a person to death, then X is a random variable with exponential distribution of parameter μ, ie
Pr (X \\ \\ \\ \\ \\ \\ \\ \\ u0026lt; = x) = 1 - exp [-μx].
The expected value of this random variable is simply
E [X] = 1 / μ,
the average life expectancy expected life of the newborn is. For example, if the probability that someone dies in a given year is 1 / 3000, the average life span is 3000 years, 1500 years. This is due to the survival, we use, because people are not old, and because the probability of death is constant throughout life, whether you are 2 years or 500 years - the kind of death in the stable next year.To follow the pattern of loss of an exponential distribution, ignoring all other effects.
To make it as easy as possible, put the average life expectancy is the reciprocal of the force to die in mortality, which in turn (approximately) the probability in a given year.
If we choose wisely resident, I would say, always!
Someone destroy.Burst a car is the area of toxic Destroy.This material itself is the body.Meteors rights, comets, asteroids, none of this makes the car "destroy nuclear material.Imagine derivatives is your face.That I material.Without destroy this material, we would be young and live forever.Before destroy the knowledge that I had. () My opinion
The only way to calculate this, the statistics from the municipal authorities and the death of local people to collect. Most people die of what is known as "ie, natural causes, disease or organ failure. After a while, they only die wear, and perhaps the age of the" old think. "However, that average life expectancy for men 75 years amounts. If you took all those who have derived from "natural causes" of illness, or after every 1000 men there are people who die accidentally or intentionally. Let us assume that is 50 So you have to die 1 in 20 chance that the natural reason, therefore, whether a natural life span 75 years and 1:20 had died after he shot, we expect up to 20 x 75 = live 1500 years before I would kill you as they were 20th in the last an average of 750 years. 1500 / 2. Use this method to the period of actual use to calculate if you can get. Mine are simple, for example.
Stadium is a kind of rough estimate
Start
http://www.the-eggman.com/writings/death ...
Death gives a total of U.S. "accidental" (no age, illness and deliberate shooting, etc.) to about 100,000 per year in the United States of shots remain a risk in their world without disease, calculation is a little conservative, but always in the approximate class, you are probably
Assuming that each person has the same probability, has a fatal accident, and assuming that 300,000,000 people in the United States:
So who is every year 1 in 3000 chance of a fatal accident, and we can assume that the report, even if the population grows or contracts
So, if I lose (something big is no guarantee I've done in a hurry, but you can check my accounts and figures and logic) in very general terms, it would be about 1500 years ago, the chance of death to a person
Of course, the more than 100,000 people from the first year, and it wasone of them
This is the type is not rigorous statistical calculation
I think there is an idea of the probability of accidental death in the law of the United States.
I read somewhere that people have many years of his life 120 years ago, no matter what, even if you are the perfect picture of health that I will pop out when you hit 120 ...
Now there are people in the Bible who lived hundreds of years .... old
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